Regular Article - Theoretical Physics
Bayesian Monte Carlo method for nuclear data evaluation
Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG, P.O. Box 25, 1755, ZG Petten, The Netherlands
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Accepted: 30 July 2015
Published online: 24 December 2015
A Bayesian Monte Carlo method is outlined which allows a systematic evaluation of nuclear reactions using the nuclear model code TALYS and the experimental nuclear reaction database EXFOR. The method is applied to all nuclides at the same time. First, the global predictive power of TALYS is numerically assessed, which enables to set the prior space of nuclear model solutions. Next, the method gradually zooms in on particular experimental data per nuclide, until for each specific target nuclide its existing experimental data can be used for weighted Monte Carlo sampling. To connect to the various different schools of uncertainty propagation in applied nuclear science, the result will be either an EXFOR-weighted covariance matrix or a collection of random files, each accompanied by the EXFOR-based weight.
© SIF, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015